He's a sneaky weasel. Despite the predictions of Hillary landslide I had a sick feeling last week knowing he's the type of guy who is always on the winning side.
My Grandma used to say he's the type person who could put his hand down a toilet and come up with a gold watch on his wrist.
It's shit but don't worry too much; markets crash when there's uncertainty. Happenings of the future can recover them again.
For example; in FX the pound crashed on brexit. The recent high court announcement recovered the pound and in the future it could recover more depending on whether brexit doesn't go ahead and if it does how well the UK performs.
Traders love to sight reasons for taking the market up and down. The wider the gap, the more they make. They can bet long or short, call or put while hedging their bets, however they play. There is no solid reason for the markets to crash other than that.
The next president will not be able to change anything for months
You may have missed one thing about investing E. It's called a run. It's unstoppable when investors, particularly institutional investors, believe an event will have catastrophic consequences.
The way a trader or asset manager would do what you're describing is by selling and buying shares hoping to cause a movement in the market. There are heavy, heavy penalties for traders or asset managers who do this, and their managers.
Even the notable financial media "stars" and most prolific advisors are saying buy the dip if Trump wins, sell the run up if Hillary wins.
The markets will again find the average they are at now before the next administration takes office, before the settle into their natural, long term trend that will indeed be affected by the election.
There is nothing fundamentally wrong with any market indicators that should bring the markets down right now.
Of course, I may just be talking out my butt, I'm exhausted. This has been a long painful evening. I'm going to cuddle up with my Doxie, and snooze.
Manipulation is illegal, its market abuse. I work for an investment bank and I have compliance and market training coming out of my ears.
The reason the US market will crash is because Trump was unexpected, and now the US government bonds and stocks in US companies (in the dollar) will be perceived to be a high risk investment. They will recover when the perception of risk decreases, but that perception is taken from what traders say, what trump starts tweeting or doing or deciding, what the media says, what large investment managers publish in research papers. It's more than a trader or investment manager abusing the market.
- For the Love of Pigs
"That hate won breaks my heart."
Yeah. How did this happen? And I'd like to know how virtually all the respected polls were so wrong. I don't understand that.
Where are you sf? We need to hear from you.
- And got the T-shirt
Here's my thought about the polls. The rise of cell phone has made polling much harder to do. When we all had landlines, and area codes and the first three digits of phone numbers designated a geographic area, pollsters could be pretty sure whether they were surveying in a particular socioeconomic/political/religious/whatever district, and have somewhat more confidence in the results. Now, all bets are off.
I also think robocalling has affected the accuracy of polling. I just don't answer the phone during an election season unless I recognize the number. And I've never, ever, listened to a computer message all the way through unless it was from my pharmacy or the kids' schools. There are a lot of folks out there that do the same.
They also survey a very small number of people, and I don't think they emphasize enough how much room there is for error. I read an article a couple of weeks ago that most of the pollsters survey between 500 and 1000 people, and then generate their stats out of multiple computer runs against that data. I understand that it costs money to run the polls, but that's just not enough people in the sample.